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 市场回归理性 

  2017年的中国机械装备制造业,谈得最多的莫过于&ldquo;增速放缓&rdquo;和&ldquo;产业结构调整&rdquo;。

   据中国汽车工业协会(以下简称&ldquo;中汽协&rdquo;)统计,今年1~10月汽车销量累计增长3.15%,其中乘用车增长5.86%、商用车下滑5.25%。与此同?#20445;?#20013;国工程机械行业也经历了&ldquo;过山车式&rdquo;的发展历程,在一季度井喷式的发展之后,从第二季度开始出现增速下滑现象,第三季度虽然有所反弹但对市场整体发展影响甚微。

   放缓的背后 

  关于增长放缓的原因,业内早有较为权威的分析,?#19968;?#26412;上已经形成共识,主要还是受到宏观经济形势的影响。近年来,CPI指数节节攀升,国家为了抑制过热的经济形势,采取了适度从紧的货币政策。2017年上半年,央行连续6次提高人民币存款准备金率,并且多次加息。市场资金面趋紧,较大程度上限制了机械装备业的消?#30740;?#27714;。

   伴随着银根的缩紧,还有各种利好政策的退出,?#28909;?#26366;经对汽车销量起到较大刺激作用的车辆购置税优惠、汽车下乡补贴和以旧换新补贴等?#21462;?#20854;中,微型面包车的市场变化非常明显,堪称这一影响的突出代表。在被中汽协称之为&ldquo;交叉型乘用车&rdquo;的系?#26800;?#20013;,微型面包车占据了较大的比重,而据其统计,2011年1~10月份交叉型乘用车销量同比累计下滑9.82%;而在过去两年里,交叉型乘用车的增长势头在所?#26800;?#27773;?#36947;?#22411;当中是最快的,微型面包车的增长?#22987;?#36817;80%。

   中汽协副会长兼常务秘书长董扬曾经用这样一句话来形容今年汽车市场的表现拉人的还行,拉货的不行。从1~10月销售数据来看,除了?#32479;?#36824;能坚持13.3%的同比增长之外,其他商用车型全部是负增长;半挂牵引车是重灾区,1~10月同比下滑27.40%。之所以会出?#32456;?#31181;状况,跟相关行业今年的疲软表现有较大关联,?#28909;?#23439;观调控下的房地产行业、甬?#29575;?#25925;后的铁路建设以及福岛核事故后的核电建设项目等?#21462;?#30001;此,也不难理解中国工程机械行业为什么会出现下滑的迹象,跟大部分商用车一样,它们都属于生产资?#31995;?#33539;畴。

   理性回归 

  经过这样一番分析,2017年机械装备制造业市场增速放缓实在是形势使然。目前的情形才是比较正常的?#21050;?#24066;场在恢复理性,这话董扬说过,中国工程机械工业协会秘书长苏?#29992;?#35828;过,中国机械工业联合会副会长张小虞也说过。 

  2009-2019年的机械装备市场,无论是工程机械还是汽车,都表现出了强劲的增长。而这?#25351;?#36895;增长的背后,则是国家强有力的政策推手。这应该从两三年前席卷世界的金融海啸说起,虽然中国在稳健的货币政策下并未受到太多的危机波及,但出于保证GDP增长的考?#29301;?#22269;家推行了一系列拉动内需的政策,其中最为耀眼的当属&ldquo;四万亿元&rdquo;的基础建设投资。但是,优惠政策并不属于长效机制,从一开始便注定了迟早会退出;而且,逐日飞涨的物价和可望不可即的楼市泡沫,更加促使人们反思近两年的举动。于是,宏观经济形势发生了转变。

   或许2018年的市场环境有些过于严苛,铁路建设、核电建设等大型工程项目?#25345;?#31243;度上可以说是因为突发事件而暂时出现停?#20572;?#20170;年的情况有些特殊。国家有关加大保障性住房建设、水利工程建设、海洋建设工程、铁路、公路、城镇公共交通和基础设施、电力、输气工程、输电工程等等,仍旧给中国机械装备制造业未来的发展描绘了一张美好的蓝图。

   热情是一柄双刃剑

  虽然2017年中国机械装备制造业市场的整体气候不是很好,但对多数企业而言,似乎并不足以消磨他们发展扩张的热情,不少企业仍然表现得豪情万丈。 

  近日,长安铃木发布消息称,为弥补产能不足,该公司已启动了第二工厂建设。新工厂投资50亿元,到2015年将最终建成年产25万辆整车、30万台发动机的又一生产基地。而在不?#20204;?#30340;10月14日,东风股份轻卡阵地?#23395;?#20248;化项目竣工,年产8万辆的新总装线正式投产。此前,江?#30784;?#27604;亚迪、宇通、?#37096;?#31561;多家企业都提出了扩充产能的计划。

 

  汽车行业如此,工程机械行业也不例外。11月30日,山?#21448;?#33021;公布定增预?#31119;?#25311;以不低于10.66元/股定向增发不超过8500万股,募资不超过12亿元,用于?#36739;?#20013;大型机械设备项目。在此之前,徐工机械、中联重科、三一重工、柳工?#32479;?#26519;股份等等工程机械上市公司都曾经进行过定向增发再融资。

 

  面对如此频繁的企业产能扩充行为,业内早已是热评如?#20445;?amp;ldquo;产能过剩&rdquo;已经成为整个中国机械装备制造业都不得不认真对待的问题。曾经有专?#39029;?#35328;警示:&ldquo;不要用过去的增长速度来类?#21462;?#25512;导未来的增长速度,我们未来的发展面临很多的不?#33539;?#24615;。&rdquo;

  产能过剩必将带来行业内竞争的加剧,?#29575;?#19978;近几年来这一点已经表现得非常突出。汽车行业也好,工程机械行业也罢,都已经出现了不少过度竞争的情况,?#28909;?#36229;低价销售、零首付政策等等,已经严重影响了整个中国机械装备制造业健康、正常的市场?#20995;頡?/p>

 

  中国工程机械工业协会秘书长苏?#29992;?#26366;在某论?#25104;?#21628;吁,&ldquo;我们的产品应该加价卖&rdquo;。原因很简单,原材料涨价,员工的工资水平在提高,企业的生产成本增加了。而面对竞争过度的市场,各企业可以说是焦头烂额又无可奈?#21361;?#21040;最后只能互相拼血本。而根据某位企业老总的测算,如果按照现在的销售手段来计算,很多企业哪怕是上市公司,最多也只能支?#25856;?#24180;。

 

  今年整体市场不景气、信贷?#36136;?#27604;较严峻,很多中小企业?#27982;?#20020;着资金面紧张的问题。不?#20204;埃?#28201;州大批中小企业老板出逃,就是一个比较明显的信号。虽然对于多数中国机械装备制造企业而言,目前似乎?#24418;?#20986;现明显的资金链断裂情况,但这确实是一个不能不重点关注的问题。

 

  与此同?#20445;?#25105;们也应该看到一些积极的方面&mdash;&mdash;很多企业都深?#24515;?#21069;处?#36710;募?#38505;,在产品、技术、营销乃至服务创新上不懈努力,积极探寻更为广阔的蓝海。?#28909;?#19968;再突破外资?#25918;?#22404;?#31995;?#19977;一重工,今年在BICES上展出刷新世界纪录的86米臂架泵车之后,又成功地在超大吨位全地面起重机领域实现突破。还有一些有志于突破关键核心技术瓶颈的企业,正在奋然前行。在汽车行业,值得一提的是新能源汽车和校车产业,虽然目前还没有形成足够成熟的市场氛围,但有不少企业已经在这些方面倾注了大量的热情和精力,一部分扩大的产能正是与此有关。

 

  热情就像一把双刃剑,能够推动企业走向成功,但盲目扩张迟早难免自食恶果。

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